Calamatta Cuschieri Moneybase Chief Investment Officer Jordan Portelli maintained a cautious stance on SpaceX after shares surged around 62 per cent since last Friday’s initial public offering (IPO).
Mr Portelli tells WhosWho.mt that the spike could be a “herding effect” on the back of the fear of missing out (FOMO).
Prior to the IPO, in which SpaceX stock was offered to the market at $135 per share, Moneybase issued a word of caution to investors based on its research and analysis of SpaceX.
After assessing the company’s three main business lines (Starlink, rocket launching and AI) bottom-up, it came up with an estimated fair valuation of around $84 per share and encouraged investors to wait for a better entry price.
In SpaceX’s favour, Moneybase pointed to Starlink connectivity generating $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025, the company’s dominant and vertically integrated rocket-launch business, and the fact that its in-house capabilities give Starlink a structural cost edge that no competitor can match.
However, it also flagged how the group posted a $4.95 billion net loss in 2025 and how xAI posted a $3.2bn revenue but a $5.8bn operating loss.
It also identifies Elon Musk’s control of 85 per cent of voting rights as a governance risk.
After SpaceX rose past $200 in its first few days of trading before dipping to around $179 (as it stands), WhosWho.mt asked Calamatta Cuschieri Moneybase’s CIO whether he stands by this valuation.
“We stick to our fundamental view,” Mr Portelli responded.
“The share price continued to increase following comments by Elon Musk after its IPO debut which gave ambitious forward looking views on the company's future targets, comments which created more enthusiasm amongst retail investors.”
"Looking only at the price/sales ratio, this enthusiasm is clearly reflected in the current valuation: SpaceX is trading at 119x, resembling levels of Yahoo’s peak of 118x back in 2000, during the height of dot-com era when investor sentiment was very bullish.”
“We view the price increase as a crowd investment and what we theoretically call a 'herding effect' on the back of the fear of missing out. Valuation wise nothing has changed. We remain cautious and await potentially more attractive entry levels.”
