Donald Trump has been declared the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, marking a historic comeback as he becomes the first president since Grover Cleveland to win non-consecutive terms.
His victory, with a narrow but decisive surpassing of 277 electoral votes, concludes a contentious campaign season that faced two assassination attempts and an extraordinary political backdrop.
Analysts and former officials have offered varied reactions to WhosWho.mt, providing insights into the potential challenges and impacts of Trump’s second term on global stability, domestic policies, and international alliances.
Evarist Bartolo: The 'deep state' and Trump’s isolationist stance
Former Foreign Minister Evarist Bartolo emphasised the obstacles Trump may encounter from what he referred to as the ‘deep state,’ a network of influence spanning the U.S. government, economy, security services, and military.
According to Mr Bartolo, this network operates independently, often impacting policy outcomes regardless of who occupies the White House.
Mr Bartolo also reflected on Trump’s position regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, noting that Trump’s campaign had hinted at a desire for improved relations with Russia.
Trump reportedly urged both Russia and Ukraine to negotiate, signalling a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy. However, Mr Bartolo highlighted Trump’s failure to explain how such negotiations might unfold, raising questions about whether his approach could yield tangible results.
Trump has also encouraged the European Union to invest more in its defence capabilities rather than relying on U.S. support - a stance that may herald a shift toward American isolationism in global security matters, Mr Bartolo added.
Mr Bartolo’s analysis extended to Trump’s position on the Middle East, noting the former president’s strong pro-Israel stance, yet with a newfound approach during the campaign to appeal to American Arabs disillusioned with Biden’s support for Israel’s recent actions in Gaza.
"During the campaign, he told Netanyahu to stop the war on Gaza," Mr Bartolo pointed out. He also said that however Trump might balance these divergent interests remains an open question.
The complexities in Trump’s stance toward Iran were also highlighted, as Mr Bartolo recalled Trump’s previous dismantling of the nuclear agreement with Iran.
Under Biden, the U.S. managed to restrain Israel from escalating tensions with Iran, but Mr Bartolo wonders if Trump’s return might alter this dynamic. He questioned whether Trump would support Israel in a confrontation with Iran, a conflict that could have far-reaching consequences for global energy markets and security.
George Vital Zammit: Uncertainties around Trump’s global ambitions
George Vital Zammit, Senior Lecturer on Policy, Politics, and Governance at the University of Malta, underscored the potential impact of Trump’s presidency on the global stage.
Dr Vital Zammit noted Trump’s campaign promises of a "world without wars," suggesting a desire to foster global stability. However, he questioned the feasibility of such promises, pointing out that Trump had not clarified his approach.
In particular, Dr Vital Zammit raised concerns about Trump’s ambivalent stance on NATO and his hesitancy to support Ukraine. "Will Europe be left alone?" Dr Vital Zammit asked, alluding to fears that Trump’s policies might embolden Russia to strengthen its hold over occupied Ukrainian territories.
He also highlighted the risks facing the Middle East, noting that Trump’s re-election could bring unforeseen consequences in an already volatile region.
Former EU Commissioner Tonio Borg: Harris’s challenges and Trump’s future obstacles
Tonio Borg, a former EU Commissioner, commented on the dynamics that might have influenced Kamala Harris’s defeat, noting that her position as Vice President in the Biden administration likely contributed to her loss.
"It seems that President Biden’s presidency was not so popular with voters," Prof. Borg remarked, adding that Harris’s late candidacy only compounded these issues.
Prof. Borg also suggested that Trump’s presidency may face formidable challenges ahead, particularly if upcoming court judgements affect his credibility.
While Prof. Borg's remarks focus on Trump’s legal hurdles, he also alludes to the ongoing scrutiny Trump could face within the U.S. political system, potentially impacting his capacity to lead without interruption.
Converging views on Trump's isolationist leanings and Middle East policies
Across their perspectives, Prof. Borg, Mr Bartolo, and Dr Vital Zammit all pointed to Trump’s potential shift towards a more isolationist foreign policy.
They noted his inclination to distance the U.S. from global conflicts, particularly in Europe and the Middle East. However, each expert expressed uncertainty regarding the execution and effects of these policies, with Prof. Borg and Mr Bartolo speculating about Trump’s stance on Iran and Dr Vital Zammit cautioning about the implications for Europe’s defence.
Trump’s second term is set to begin in January 2025, but questions remain regarding how his administration will approach these complex issues. With expectations that Trump will act differently than his predecessors in key areas, the world waits to see how his promises of prioritising "America First" will shape U.S. foreign policy and the global order over the next four years.
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