Prediction market Polymarket is emerging as a popular gauge of sentiment about the Maltese general election, with over $250,000 wagered so far.

The most active market is the one asking people who the next Prime Minister of Malta will be, attracting $115,000 in bets. Robert Abela is the overwhelming favourite, with Polymarket giving him a 92 per cent change to return to the top role.

A further $67,800 has been played on the parliamentary winner, where the Labour Party is similarly favoured at 92 per cent.

Robert Abela is the overwhelming favourite on Polymarket

The ‘battle of the third parties’ has also generated a lot of interest, with just over $43,000 bet so far on which party will finish in third place. ADPD is currently seen as having a 54% probability of finishing third compared to Momentum’s 36% although the odds have shifted significantly throughout the campaign.

A further $24,500 has been placed on the turnout percentages, where the most popular view (48 per cent of bets) is that fewer  than 85 per cent of the Maltese electorate will turn out to vote.

And with Labour so dominant in the polls, a further market has emerged asking people how large the gap between PL and PN will be, although only $1,800 has been wagered here so far.

Most punters (41 per cent) believe PL will maintain a gap of between 10-15 per cent, similar numbers to the won it achieved at the 2022 election.

Last month, Economy Minister Silvio Schembri announced that Malta is actively exploration the possible regulation of prediction markets.